Russia is also conducting "supporting operations" of a military nature. On January 20th, the Russian defense minister announced that Russia will conduct large-scale exercises in January and February not only in the waters around Russia, the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, but also in Okhotsk and the Pacific Ocean. This is politically a check on the West, but for Russia, which has now concentrated one third of its land forces around Ukraine, the action is intended to quell military unrest in areas where Russia has pulled its forces.

　For the general public, it is quite difficult to understand the motivations here. It is hard to see how Russia pushing its navy out to the Pacific Ocean would help its invasion of Ukraine. However, from a military perspective, it seems quite natural. Russia's defenses in the Far East and other areas have weakened because it pulled out its forces to place them near Ukraine. To compensate for this, they are sending their navy into the region and placing it on alert.

　Considering this point, we can speculate that it was Russia that instigated the riots in Kazakhstan in early January. Russia eventually sent in its troops to suppress the uprising. By doing so, Russia was able to quell the unrest in and around Kazakhstan before its invasion of Ukraine.

What Japan can do and what Japan should do

　In this situation, what can Japan do? What should it do?

　The most important thing is to cancel Foreign Minister Lavrov's visit to Japan and immediately stop the negotiations for a peace treaty.

　Japan has shown its willingness to reject China's attempts to change the status quo by force. If Japan overlooks Russia's attempt to change the status quo by force through the invasion of Ukraine, it will not have a coherent position against China.

　In an online discussion with the U.S. President Biden on January 21st, Prime Minister Kishida said, "We will work closely together to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine and take strong action against any attack," and promised to "keep close contact with the United States and other allies and partners." Negotiations with Russia for a peace treaty would be a betrayal of these words.

　Above all, negotiating for a peace treaty under these circumstances would be nothing less than support for Russia.

　Japan can also take more proactive measures. It could provide arms, as the United Kingdom and the Baltic states do, or it could provide financing, as Canada does. However, there are few weapons that Japan uses that Ukraine can immediately use, and the domestic legal procedures are complicated and time-consuming. Instead, Japan should make effective use of the fact that it is far away from Ukraine, but close to Russia.