This is the English translation of the article which appeared on JBpress on June 24.
The 'farming vote' is a key piece of political terminology in Japan -- one with negative connotations for Japanese urban voters. The general perception is that voting activity by farmers and cooperatives to try to elect Diet members to protect their own vested interests is ruining Japanese agriculture and Japan itself.
There is one thing people talking about the farming vote haven't noticed. That is, they haven't looked closely at the actual strength of the farming vote.
As the very definition of the farming vote is unclear, I have attempted to estimate it statistically.
Prefectures for which A is 11% or higher (based on 2010 national census and agricultural census data)Take a look at the table on the right.
The first column shows farmers as a percentage of the total prefectural population (A), while the second shows the percentage of farmers that are part-time (i.e. with income from farming comprising 50% or less of total income. Many 'salarymen' do some farming on days off). Using these figures, the final column shows the actual farming vote, which is calculated as follows: A x (1-B).
Naturally, farming populations are large in rural areas and small in urban ones, but the actual influence of farming populations in rural areas differs quite significantly from one area to another.
Everyone knows, for instance, that farmers have no influence in Tokyo, Kanagawa and Osaka. But how much influence do they have in other areas?
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